What's Changed?

What will change in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? We’ve started coming back together; and when we do, we’ve all been talking about the “lost year,” what’s changed, what hasn’t. I’ve heard and read some things that surprised me, and thought I’d share them with you. I also had some fun researching this question. One writer described the pandemic as “an accelerant and a polarizer.” I thought that was uniquely apt. The Washington Post wrote a great article about this, reflecting on the similarly impactful influenza epidemic of 1918. Gains for some this past year and moving forward often are losses for others. Changes in how we travel, for example, also impact airlines, tourism, hospitality industry. More remote work means less revenue in our downtowns. It’s such a mixed bag. We are inextricably intertwined, aren’t we?
 
Gains:

• Tech won; bigtime
  • Start-ups are exploding.
  • Virtual meetings are here to stay (this cuts both ways, because tech upgrades in your office will be expensive).
  • No more snow days (actually, I think this last one’s a loss…)!
  • Have you tried grocery delivery? I’m keeping it!
  • Restaurants with digital delivery platforms had an edge.
  • Zoom. Enough said.
• If you’ve been considering selling your home, maybe capitalize on the market now. Of course, you’ll have to rent for the next 18+ months, but it might be worth it.
• The possibility of access to a global workforce – virtually. Think of the communities, previously shrinking in size, with new possibilities for the workforce. You could live in St. Paul while working for a company in Ely; move to New Zealand and keep working for your firm in Minnesota – maybe.
• Does anybody else quietly celebrate NOT needing to commute this past year? Was a GAIN for me (though I understand this, too, was in the LOSS column for many).
• Facetime with your doctor. And other digital health tools. Can anyone say, “timely and accessible health care”?
• Growing convergence between personal and professional; this is especially interesting in Minnesota, known historically for our stronger boundaries between work friends and, say, cabin buddies.
• The government has been printing money. When will the inevitable day of debt reckoning arrive?
• Manufacturing must continue to transition to nearshoring operations and more automation. Centralized operations with low-cost labor halfway across the world simply aren’t flexible enough. This absolutely will benefit U.S. manufacturing job shops.

 
Losses

• Parking revenue for our cities is way down.
• Restaurants and retailers: approximately 10% of our restaurants/retail will not return.
• Connections to one another, both personally and professionally. We all feel a little disconnected.
• Certainty. 14 months of pandemic life; overwork, grief, anxiety, isolation, rolling trauma.
• More political melodrama: as we depend evermore on social media, video over in-person, we can anticipate that candidates will have to be ever more…. Interesting… to keep headlines. “Nice-but-boring” doesn’t sell online or in catchy tweets.
• Small business. Still struggling. Will take years to recover from 15+ months of loss – if they can.

• Hugs. I’ve gotten some really awkward side hugs from people I clearly shouldn’t have approached with arms wide open. Oops. I hope this is a short-term impact, along with those clumsy elbow bumps. Sigh.

 
Not sure yet

• Distance learning. Scrambling to adapt on the fly was horrific for kids, teachers, and parents alike. But more online learning tools can be really helpful if done right. And, of course, schools built with online learning as its platform have the advantage.
• Wages. Is it possible for a win-win here? Employees are paid higher wages, firms pay with productivity growth? We last saw this virtuous cycle in the late 1990s. The likelihood of this Goldilocks scenario remains unclear.
• Transit ridership. This one’s still tricky, especially if many downtown commuters are able to adopt hybrid schedules. However, regional connectivity and access to job opportunity is still a growth, attraction, and equity issue. This is worth watching.

 
One more thing: the Fed continues to track economic recovery. Its latest 5-minute survey is still open; your input matters!
 
See you in the trenches.
B

Rising virus cases in Minnesota fuel an uptick in hospitalizations. # of patients in the state has topped 100 for 5 of the last 6 days. Meanwhile, we are seeing increasing pressure worldwide for vaccinations. CDC says the U.S. is ‘not out of the woods’ due to the highly infectious Delta variant. 

Are you considering mandating the vaccine for employees? Here are 5 best practices to follow.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is monitoring economic conditions in the region: COVID-19 and the Ninth District economy: A dashboard.
Also, join Ron Wirth to hear an update from the Federal Reserve on Regional Economic Conditions: Register here for a virtual event on August 24.
 
The future of the labor market: read about unemployment insurance and how the expiration of benefits will impact labor force participation. Morning Consult anticipates that wage pressures are likely to retreat as the labor market normalizes, while Emsi Burning Glass anticipates a long-term shortage of workers and continued higher wages/bonuses as an incentive to hold onto workers in a brutally competitive market ahead.
 
Airlines
Delta and Air Canada resuming nonstop routes to cities in Canada.
Frontier adding nonstop route between MSP and Las Vegas.

Updates on transit: $4M federal grant to Metro Transit will deploy more electric buses in the metro area. And re LRT: Riverview’s June 23 virtual open house can be watched here, and will help shape the final document before it is presented to the Policy Advisory Committee yet this month; Southwest LRT’s rocky mess due to project delays and cost overruns.
 
Read more updates in our weekly Chamber Advocacy Update

Former Ecolab CEO, Doug Baker, joins energy-services firm JIT Services as owner.
 
What’s going on with your Chamber?
We have a few tickets left for our VIP Vikings Training Camp Experience, Return to the #BoldNorth, on August 4. Consider joining us! Our next session in this year’s Equity Leadership Series. Together we are improving workplace culture. Being Ready for Today’s Employees: Creating a Sense of Belonging. Join our virtual event on August 18!

These disconnects fueling turnover in the COVID-19 era. Three chasms: debate over flexibility; the status of vaccinations; employees feeling disconnected from their companies/missions.
 
Why do CEOs get fired? Change efforts will likely fail without enough buy-in from employees.  
 
Young Professionals: the time is right to get together. Our annual Boat Cruise is back on for August 18. Enjoy an evening on the water and connect with other Twin Cities young professionals. I’ll be there too!

Goff Public offers pro bono services to organizations working to achieve racial equity. They’ve done it before, and they want to do it again! Take the opportunity – this is a really strong organization. Fill out this form on their website by August 31.


Check out the new Full Stack Saint Paul website! Take a look and learn more about its history, Steering Committee, and strategies to amplify tech and innovation.

Minnesota ranks #3 nationwide in U.S. prosperity study, the highest ranking among all Midwest states. 
 
Ramsey County’s new Inclusive Workplaces Cohort is now accepting applications. Deadline to apply is August 9.

Capstone Quadrangle plans 232K SF spec industrial project in Burnsville. 

The next evolution of Dixie’s on Grand took a leap forward on Friday. Five-story replacement for Dixie’s on Grand wins Planning Commission support. Restaurateur Peter Kenefick and developer Reuter Walton plan an 80-unit, market-rate apartment building in place of the currently 1-story structure. The plan incorporates Saji Ya and Emmett’s Public House at ground level, with room for a 3rd and maybe a 4th retail space.
 
Gaining a foothold: read about Johnny Opara, a Twin Cities-based developer of color. He estimates that less than 1% of all developers in the metro are Black. And read about LISC Twin Cities report conducted by Minnesota-based JOG Associates, which details the challenges faced by developers of color. Worth taking the time to study.  

Mystery project in Cottage Grove may hire 1,300 workers, according to developer.  NorthPoint Development is leading a 2.4M SF, $212M project that could break ground this fall, one of the largest industrial projects in the Cities. But who is the anchor tenant – and client? 

Demand for industrial space never higher in the Twin Cities. Industrial real estate is experiencing “unprecedented demand.