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"Weary and Wary”  or “Practicing Perseverance"

1/24/2022

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​I spent some time in St. Paul restaurants through the weekend, trying to get a sense of initial impacts from vaccine mandates. Some restaurants are checking cards; others have closed inside dining. All I visited checked my vaccine status at the door (I use the Docket app for ease). In the immediate term, business is down across the board. All I spoke to reported significant reservation cancellations, one along West 7th reported business down by 75% over the weekend. The good news is that patrons generally are being gracious with the process. I have taken a few calls from individuals who tell me that, given the new mandate, they are more willing to come downtown. Thus far, the numbers haven’t borne that out. I do like what Tim Niver of Saint Dinette said:  “Mandates aren’t here to help business. They’re here to help people…if you have your vax card, just come eat.”  Though he, too, confirms that business has remained down.
 
Meanwhile, issues of public safety and increased crime continue to be a very real, very deep concern.
 
The entire community is weary and wary. How much more of this is ahead, we all wonder?
 
We persevere, but we are very, very tired. And we all are on the edge. I hear it in the tone people are using with one another, the tension and anger that is bubbling just below the surface, the divisive language and ugly accusations being thrown against people who disagree on any of the serious the issues of the day….
 
These last two years of will-it-ever-end-COVID-19 coupled with very serious concerns of public safety have upended our lives. Completely. And we’re still all over the place in terms of our experience/opinions of both. It’s messy and lonely.  May I offer one thought for all of us to hold onto? Kindness, people. Speak kindly, think kindly, behave kindly. Now more than ever are we called to a higher standard. We can disagree; absolutely. But let’s do so with comity.  
 
When I need to calm my own mind, I turn to Mahatma Gandhi. And he tells us that, “when I despair, I remember that all throughout history… there have been tyrants and murderers and, for a time, they can seem invincible; but, in the end, they always fall. Think of it – always.”  That sounds like a pandemic to me.
 
See you in the trenches.
B
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  • The CDC is redefining what constitutes “fully vaccinated.”
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  • Many of us have been vaccinated, boosted, and still had a breakthrough COVID infection. The question we are asking: do we have “super immunity” after booster and Omicron?  Doctors from 3 different healthcare groups respond.
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  • Invest: Minneapolis-St Paul 2022 Launch Conference highlights economic resilience, long-term opportunities. Feb 17, 11am Zoom webinar event. Opening keynote speaker is DEED Commissioner Steve Grove.

  • According to Morning Consult, The Federal Open Market Committee's two-day policy meeting is set for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a news conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled shortly after the conclusion of the gathering. What we're watching: There's an expectation among economists that this will be the meeting in which central bank officials tip their hands on raising interest rates in March, though some believe a concrete timeline will not be revealed. Regardless of the timing, this monetary policy meeting will likely center on the Fed's plans for transitioning away from its easy-money policies of the past two years. 

  • State’s unemployment rate lowest it’s been since 2019, down 2.1% in December to 3.1%.

  • The Governor's Council on Economic Expansion met on January 10th to work on Phase II recommendations for allocating state ARPA funds. The next meeting, which is virtual and open to the public, will be on January 31st.  
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  • Regional Economic Conditions: General Business and Manufacturing. Check out this virtual video event on Feb 4.
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Public Safety:
  • The federal jury trial of three former Minneapolis police officers involved in George Floyd’s death being held in downtown Saint Paul, at the Warren E. Burger Federal Courthouse is expected to resume today with opening statements. Jury selection and pretrial/motion hearings concluded last week.  At this time, the SPPD is unaware of any immediate credible threats related to events planned in St. Paul.  SPPD will provide information through a blog on the police department website which can be found at https://www.stpaul.gov/news
 
  • MN Judicial Council weighs eliminating criminal history information from pretrial release forms. This is a tricky one to balance bias checks vs the need-to-know criminal history and “failed to appear” information.
 
  • Why are police chiefs and DAs feuding in some cities? Great read on the essential relationship between prosecutors and police. Together they have a responsibility to prevent the next crime and hold responsible those who commit crime. And their focus always has been a victim-centered approach. A worthwhile read. 
State:
  • The proposed “Walz-Flanagan Budget”
  • Walz proposes $350 rebate checks from budget surplus; Republicans call it ‘election year gimmick’
  • Governor’s bonding priorities: given that we’re in an even-numbered year, the legislative debate will be over the bonding bill (odd years focus on 2-year budgets) and potential supplemental budget packages. “Walz checks”? $770M committed to $175 apiece to all but the richest Minnesotans. Tax cuts for low- and middle-income families. Replenishing the UI fund.
 
Regional
  • Mayor Carter recently was interviewed by the Star Tribune on his priorities for second term: Sizing up the capital city’s next hurdles.
 
  • The St. Paul City Council approved wide-ranging zoning amendments last week, following the first phase of the city’s “1-4 Unit Housing Study,” which aims to create more ”infill” housing. Read more here.  
 
Read more updates in our weekly Chamber Advocacy Update.
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  • stpaulchamber.podbean.com/St. Paul and Minneapolis have significant challenges ahead. Join us on January 27 at the University of St. Thomas to hear what our mayors have to say at our annual Breakfast With the Mayors.
 
  • Our biggest event of every year is our Annual Meeting. More crucial than ever today is cyber security, and we’ll be hearing about that this year from this country’s preeminent voice: Join us on February 17 at RiverCentre to hear from the Director of the NSA/Cyber Command, General Paul Nakasone.
 
  • Leadership Saint Paul’s 2022 class (best class ever?) kicks off in March.  If you looking to participate in this phenomenal leadership program and build a cohort of relationships to stay with you for the rest of your career, check it out! Applications can be submitted through the end of the month.  
 
  • It is time for the Winter Carnival! Check out Visit Saint Paul’s Guide to this year’s events.  2022 Pioneer Press Treasure Hunt Clue 1.
 
  • I'm happy to report B's Table Talk is back! Check out my latest podcast as well as the archives here. 
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  • January is National Mentor Month. Whether you’re looking for a mentor or ready to give back and become one, SCORE mentors can help: Find a Mentor or Be a Mentor.
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  • Applications for Lunar Startups Accelerator Cohort close January 31 at 12 PM CST. The Lunar Startups Accelerator is a 6-month, customized cohort program for founders who identify as women, Black, Indigenous, People of Color, and LGBTQ+. Learn more from executive director Danielle Steer's interview with KARE 11.
 
  • UX Academy is now accepting employer pledges for Summer 2022 Internships. Hosting a UX Academy intern is an immediately achievable way to demonstrate your commitment to diversifying and creating a more inclusive UX industry.
 
  • Jumpstart to SBA Programs for Black Business Owners and Entrepreneurs. If you are a Black business owner, entrepreneur, or an ally, check this out.
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  • Of great concern for our regional economy is the exclusion from Governor Walz’s proposed bonding bill of the $26M requested for the RiversEdge project in downtown St. Paul. Ramsey County partnered with Urban3 on a fiscal health assessment which demonstrated the land use interdependencies between St. Paul and suburban Ramsey County. We need to continue to invest in our downtowns on behalf of the entire region. Read the report here.
 
  • The national real estate landscape: the industrial market is stronger than ever. Especially big, which makes sense considering the accelerated build-out of e-commerce, are fulfillment centers and bulk warehouses. You can download Cushman Wakefield’s national market outlook report here.
 
  • And tech continued to lead US office leasing activity in 2021, though vacancy remains elevated.
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Kashkari’s Comments on the Year Ahead

1/18/2022

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We were delighted to host Minneapolis Fed Chair, Neel Kashkari, to our January Lunch With Leaders event this past Wednesday. I have paid special attention to the Fed these last 18 months, tracking the markets and inflation – and monetary policy – as we adapt to the changing face of this pandemic. As always, I find Kashkari both personable and eloquent, as he talked about the balancing work constantly underway at the Fed. I’m sharing some highlights that I found particularly relevant:
 
“The basic job of the Fed is to manage the ups and downs in the US economy to try to achieve stable overall economic growth.” We have dual mandate: 1) stable prices, typically 2% inflation year over year; 2) maximum employment. They are linked like a seesaw. As the economy heats up and businesses compete for workers, traditionally this leads to unemployment rate going down, wages going up. Those, then, lead to prices increases and inflation.  Fed raises interest rates to keep the seesaw in balance.   Pre-pandemic, we saw very low unemployment, we did not see wages increasing significantly, and inflation remained very low. That in itself actually was unique.
 
So the economy was in a very good place pre-COVID. Then we experienced an unprecedented shock to the economy. Recovery has begun, but it is uneven – within the service industry in particular. In the meantime, people have shifted spending towards goods. So this last year we saw big inflation and excess demand for goods. This translated to supply chain disruptions… part due to COVID, part due to this excess demand.
 
Right now, we are seeing very high inflation, higher than expected and longer than expected. The key question: how long will it last? On the demand side, we know how much Congress has allocated to stimulus. We know that is temporary and now fading. So the boost of excess demand ultimately will go away as well. The question, then, is supply. When do supply chains recover? This is a big area of uncertainty: when will workers return?  Nationally we are at 3.9% unemployment, and yet we still are 4-5M jobs short of where we should be without the pandemic. Where are the workers and what will it take to get them to come back to work? 6-9 mths ago I focused on generous unemployment benefits – now expired. Did not translate to a meaningful uptick in employment. Schools were closed – now far more reopened compared to last Spring. Again, did not significantly impact the labor market. Clearly, lots of certainty continues. 
 
So the timeline of supply side normalizing remains uncertain. Informally, companies are guessing: “not in 2022, maybe in 2023.” 
When we look at financial market indicators: there is long term confidence is that inflation will settle down. But we still have to watch the data.
 
Kashkari’s most interesting comments, for me, were on interest rates and how the Fed uses them:
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The housing market is one of the primary channels through which monetary policy affects the economy. If we move the federal fund rate up, long term rates typically go up with that. That essentially “cools down” the housing market somewhat. We have a lot of effect on that. We have signaled we will stop our quantitative easing program, rate increases are likely in the horizon, but mortgage interest rates are still at quite low levels. A key factor: what interest rate is “neutral” for the current economy? That neutral rate changes over time and has been declining over the last 20-30 years to very low levels. “We try to estimate where that neutral rate is, and then we decide whether we want to provide some boost to the economy, then we’ll go below neutral to provide stimulus. Or, if we want to tap the brakes, we would raise interest rates above neutral.”  We’re not likely to return to interest rates seen 20-30 years ago, because today’s “neutral” is so different.  Mortgage interest rates should remain fairly attractive for the foreseeable future.
 
My takeaways from our conversation: expect interest rates to go up in 2022, perhaps 2 adjustments this year. Long term indications are good that the underlying fundamentals of the economy will right the ship, as it were. But 2022 will continue to be a year of readjusting – particularly in the workforce.
 
One more note from the Fed: the next quarterly business survey from the Minneapolis Fed will be conducted from Monday, January 17 to Monday, January 24.  Please take this 5-minute survey to help the Minneapolis Fed and President Neel Kashkari better understand effects on your firm. With other business voices from across the Ninth District, your input will help the Federal Reserve System shape monetary policy to help businesses thrive. If you get this survey from multiple sources, please respond to the survey only once. 
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See you in the trenches.
B
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  • Omicron:
    • Unpredictability: Before the Delta variant emerged, infections among vaccinated people — known as breakthrough infections — were rare. Delta led to an increase in breakthrough infections, and Omicron has led to a larger increase. Symptoms are usually mild, but they can lead to bad outcomes for a small share of vaccinated people whose health is already vulnerable, like the elderly. The surge of breakthrough infections means Covid often still dominates everyday life.  Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota — who has long emphasized Covid’s unavoidable unknowns — has said, “We still are really in the cave ages in terms of understanding how viruses emerge, how they spread, how they start and stop, why they do what they do.
    • Cases declining elsewhere:  in Europe and East coast this past week, a potential indicator for what’s ahead for us. Hard to make predictions, but is a positive data point. Omicron is so contagious that it spreads more quickly. This rapid spread may also mean that it more quickly reaches most of the people who happen to be vulnerable to being infected by it. Omicron’s brief boom-and-bust cycle is now “a familiar pattern,” Joseph Allen of Harvard’s School of Public Health says.  How is case count going in your county? Minnesota hospitals are still bracing for the Omicron wave, even as COVID-19 declines in ICUs.
    • Waning immunity: Toward the end of the summer, some researchers began pointing to data suggesting that the power of vaccines waned after about six months. Other researchers doubted that case, saying that the data was unclear — and that pharmaceutical companies had an obvious incentive to promote waning immunity and boosters. But the case for boosters now seems clear. Another lesson: The quality of Covid data in the U.S. is poor, often clouding early judgments. It can make sense to look to Israel, where the data is better. Experts there quickly recognized that waning immunity was real.  
    • Turning point? The beginning of the end of the Omicron wave — if it turns out to be real — would be very good news. It would mean that a milder variant had become the dominant form of Covid but was no longer causing a surge in cases and overwhelming hospitals. It would mean that tens of millions of Americans had built up additional immunity, as a result of an Omicron infection. It would mean that the country would have taken a big step toward a future in which Covid is an endemic disease like the flu, rather than a pandemic that dominates life. Lauren Ancel Meyers, who runs a Covid analysis project at the University of Texas, said that people might soon look back on Omicron as a turning point. “At some point, we’ll be able to draw a line — and Omicron may be that point — where we transition from what is a catastrophic global threat to something that’s a much more manageable disease”  

  • Minneapolis and St. Paul Mayors announced patrons will need to be vaccinated or have a recent negative COVID-19 test to enter restaurants, bars and everywhere else that food and beverages are served for consumption indoors. The rule goes into effect on Wednesday.
 
  • Americans can order at-home tests through a government website starting Wednesday.
 
  • The latest guidance on Omicron from MDH.
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  • Government spending: We're just under a month out from the Feb. 18 government funding deadline to avoid a shutdown of federal agencies. What we're watching:  The top four spending leaders on Capitol Hill met for the first time on the issue on Thursday, signaling an open pathway for talks about a roughly $1.4 trillion omnibus spending package. Leaders in both parties are interested in increasing the current government funding levels, which Trump signed into law at the end of 2020.

  • Inflation? The CPI hit an almost 40-year high, rising 7% in December. Potentially at risk are Biden’s big-spending plans.
 
  • GreaterMSP’s the Federal Funding Hub website is live! Upcoming deadlines:
    • The EDA Good Jobs Challenge Application is extended until February 10th. 
    • Applicants for EDA Economic Adjustment Assistance are encouraged to apply by January 31st. 
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Federal:
  • ETS mandate: no for private employers; yes for health care workers.  In a 6-3 vote, the U.S. Supreme Court knocked down a significant piece of President Joe Biden’s plan to combat the pandemic: requiring private employers with more than 100 workers to make their employees get vaccinated against COVID-19 or submit to regular testing.  But the justices allowed a separate rule requiring some health care workers to be vaccinated to stand, our Jacob Fischler reported.  “It is now up to States and individual employers to determine whether to make their workplaces as safe as possible for employees,” Biden wrote in a statement. 
 
  • Federal trial begins Jan 20: 
    • Beginning January 18th, Robert Street and Jackson Street will be closed between Kellogg Boulevard and 4th Street, on either side of the Warren E. Burger Federal Building.  These closures will be in place for the duration of the upcoming trial of three former Minneapolis police officers charged in the killing of George Floyd.  Jury selection begins on January 20, and current expectation is that the trial will last for about four weeks.
    • The block of Robert Street between Kellogg and 4th Street will be the designated public gathering space throughout the trial.
    • The skyway over 4th Street connecting to Federal Building will be closed for the duration of the trial.
    • In addition to these road closures, some Metro Transit bus stops may be temporarily detoured.  The Green Line light rail will be in full operation. 
    • For the duration of the trial, the St. Paul Downtown Alliance Safety Communications Center will be operating a Fusus – Virtual Safety Network (VSN) Real-Time Information Dashboard in an attempt to keep downtown stakeholders informed of the current developments. Should your building security teams/property managers want access, please go to the SPDID Fusus - VSN Access Request page and submit your request.
 
State:  
  • Minnesota Sentencing Guidelines Commission on Thursday delayed a controversial vote that would’ve shortened sentences for offenders who commit crimes while on probation or parole, after fierce criticism from lawmakers, law enforcement, and the public. More than 3000 people submitted testimony to the commission, nearly 95% of them urging the commission to reject changes they feared would further endanger the public as a rise in crime leaves the Twin Cities metro on edge. Response from Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association Executive Director, Brian Peters: “MPPOA is ardently opposed to this unwarranted and untimely change. When an offender still on probation for the first crime then commits additional crimes, that aggravating factor needs to be reflected with an enhanced sentence. This proposal should be canned immediately as it prioritizes repeat felons over victims of crime who seek justice, and those that seek safety in their communities.”
 
Regional
  • Minneapolis, St. Paul requiring proof of COVID vaccination for restaurants, bars.  Minneapolis, St. Paul business reactions are mixed.
 
  • Meanwhile, suburbs take a pass on mask mandates.  Your Chamber shares the concern raised by Bloomington’s Mayor Busse: "Asking the teenager working at Boot Barn at the Mall of America to enforce [a mandate] for someone who comes in without a mask, I just thought that was unfair," he said, adding that voluntary mask use and vaccination rates appear high in the suburb.
 
  • The Supreme Court 6-3 ruling partially disrupts plans in Minneapolis and St. Paul for vaccine requirements at hospitality venues, which both cities' mayors have ordered to kick in this Wednesday. While customers must be vaccinated or show a negative test to dine at bars or restaurants and attend entertainment venues, employees at those businesses will not be subject to the mandate. Late Thursday, St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter signed an updated order striking his 24-hour-old requirement for hospitality employees while keeping the mandate on customers.”
 
  • Twin Cities mayors, police chiefs, prosecutors join forces on rising crime.
 
Read more updates in our weekly Chamber Advocacy Update.
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  • St. Paul and Minneapolis have significant challenges ahead. Join us on January 27 at the University of St. Thomas to hear what our mayors have to say at our annual Breakfast With the Mayors.
 
  • Our biggest event of every year is our Annual Meeting. More crucial than ever today is cyber security, and we’ll be hearing about that this year from this country’s preeminent voice: Join us on February 17 at RiverCentre to hear from the Director of the NSA/Cyber Command, General Paul Nakasone.
 
  • The St. Paul Downtown Alliance has released a highlight reel of recent efforts.  It’s terrific – take a look!
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  • The benefits of remote work are worth the effort of adapting your management style. And you can be successful in both environments.
 
  • Cohorts are gaining momentum as a way to keep bringing people together – despite being remote.
    • Equity Leadership Series (starts in March!)
    • Leadership St. Paul (starts in March!)
    • Join us for pure networking: Coffee and Conversation (starts in March!)
    • Join a committee (start anytime – we need you!)
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  • One of the first real nods to a potential shift in how we do business: Thomson Reuters may sell all or part of huge Eagan Campus as hybrid work becomes the norm.  
 
  • Offer from Visit Saint Paul:  QUICKLY IMPROVE YOUR GOOGLE PRESENCE (AND DRIVE SALES). With the recent uptick in COVID cases, you may find that your business is reinstating some pandemic hours and practices. Keep your audience informed and up to date on your hours and health and safety measures with a platform intended to help Saint Paul businesses that serve tourists, meetings and conventions and improve your presence in mobile web searches. The goal is to connect more customers with your business - and it’s free to you ($1,200+ annual value)! By signing up you’ll be able optimize your Google Business listing AND measure how much your business listing drives sales.  Again, this is from Visit Saint Paul: Sign up now to show up more in search!
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  • First round of federal infrastructure spending heading for Minnesota bridge projects. State leaders expect $60M to flow into the state this year to help plan for major bridge projects.
 
  • Ryan has broken ground on the M Health Fairview-anchored 60K SF medical office bldg. at Highland bridge.
 
  • Soldier Trucking buys Bix Produce bldg. in Port Authority’s Arlington Jackson Business Center on the East Side. The plan is for 140 new jobs as the company relocates its operations from Menomonie, WI.
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New Challenges for the New Year

1/10/2022

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Great read this past weekend, the January 2022 U.S. Economic Outlook (don’t judge me).  I am prepping for our January Lunch With Leaders this Wednesday, January 12, our guest speaker being Neel Kashkari, President/CEO of the Minneapolis Fed. The event is now virtual, so it's easy to join! Register here. Chair Kashkari also recently published an essay on his recommendations for interest rate increases in 2022: he has changed his outlook for monetary policy and I’m very interested.
 
Kashkari continues to anticipate that the high inflation we currently are experiencing will be transitory. That said, he believes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) must balance two opposing risks: 1) transitory high inflation which leads to an increase in long-term inflation expectations, which then leads to sustained high inflation; and 2) once the COVID-19 shock finally passes, the economy returns to the low-growth, low-inflation regime it operated in for the 20 years prior to the pandemic.
 
Given the remarkable uncertainty in the economic outlook and these two-sided risks to monetary policy, the challenge is to respond to short-term inflation impacts without doing so too aggressively and pushing the economy into recession.
 
If you want the details (which includes charts!), read Kashkari’s essay here.  And, again, join us on Jan 12 to hear from him yourself. If any of you are looking to refinance, buy or build a home, or make a capital investment in your business, this will be especially interesting to you.
 
On the U.S. economic outlook, an overall theme of growing resilience of the U.S. economy to the pandemic. 3 highlights: consumer confidence dipped only slightly in December, despite a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases; companies are holding onto workers even as cases rise since they expect future demand to hold up; financial vulnerability increased in December, and increases in the costs of basic monthly necessities relative to wages is eating into Americans’ savings, making steady employment more important than ever.
 
One more note from the Fed: the next quarterly business survey from the Minneapolis Fed will be conducted from Monday, January 17 to Monday, January 24.  I’ll share the link with you next Monday.

See you in the trenches.
B
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  • As I am sure you have all heard by now, Mayors Carter and Frey have reinstated citywide mask mandates for all licensed businesses in St. Paul and Minneapolis. This position is fully supported by the Minnesota Medical Association. Talks remain of St. Paul and Minneapolis considering going beyond masks to require proof of vaccination in some public places. Read what citizens have to say here.  Edina City Council voted down a mandate proposal and Bloomington will consider a "strongly worded recommendation" at their council meeting tonight. At this point, we don’t see a mask mandate proposal on the agenda for Roseville, Maplewood, Woodbury, Eagan, Apple Valley, IGH, or Oakdale.
  • Worried you may have caught the virus that causes COVID-19 over the holiday season? The Minnesota Department of Health has partnered with Vault Medical Services to offer free at-home test kits delivered to your door and this is the week the Biden administration is set to launch its mass at-home testing plan with a website designed to deliver 500 million free test kits to American homes.  
  • How is the state responding to Omicron? New Minnesota COVID-19 testing sites started opening this past Friday. And Gov. Tim Walz said he believes the peak of the current Omicron wave will be the third week of January.  That’s according to the Mayo model. ​
  • CDC posts rationale for shorter isolation, quarantine.
  • Last week, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments regarding the ETS. 
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  • On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee for his nomination hearing to remain in the position for another term. And on Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will also testify before the committee for her own hearing to become vice chairman of the Fed. ​
  • Unemployment today cuts deeper and lasts longer, driving rise in income risk. “Big data” research finds college-educated, higher-skilled workers suffer increasing earnings shocks and volatility.
  • A fighter for low interest rates, Minneapolis Fed chair says U.S. needs two rate increases in 2022. This is the first time Kashkari has signaled support for a rate hike since joining the Fed in 2016.
  • State manufacturers rallied in 2021. Rebound is a credit to the employers and workers, but challenges remain. That said, December’s PMI dropped from 61.1 to 58.7. Still in growth, but slowed slightly due to ongoing supply chain challenges.
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Federal:
  • President Biden will deliver his first State of the Union address before a joint session of Congress on March 1.
State:
  • MnDOT Commissioner Margaret Anderson Kelliher has announced her upcoming departure, as she has been nominated to be the Director of Public Works for the City of Minneapolis.​
Regional:
  • Public Safety: listen in on latest SPDA/BOMA Public Safety Check on Jan 5, 2022, and get update on the upcoming federal trial in St. Paul.
  • St. Paul’s Mayor Carter appoints new chief of staff, press secretary, and engagement coordinator – and more are ahead.
  • MatasCastillo elected Ramsey County Board chair: Ramsey County Commissioner Trista MatasCastillo will take the helm at Minnesota’s second-largest county after her peers elected her to the board chair role last Tuesday.
  • Commissioner Kathleen Gaylord was elected chair in Dakota County, and announced that this would be her last year in office. 
 
Read more updates in our weekly Chamber Advocacy Update.
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  • Looking for an update on the economy? Inflation? Workforce? Join us on Jan 12 for our virtual Lunch With Leaders, guest speaker: Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Mpls Fed.
  • St. Paul and Minneapolis have significant challenges ahead. Join us on January 27 at the University of St. Thomas to hear what our mayors have to say at our annual Breakfast With the Mayors.
  • Our biggest event of every year is our Annual Meeting. More crucial than ever today is cyber security, and we’ll be hearing about that this year from this country’s preeminent voice: Join us on February 17 at RiverCentre to hear from the Director of the NSA/Cyber Command, General Paul Nakasone.
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  • Playbook for 2022: How to speed up your hiring process.
  • Check out 7 questions that can lead to visionary leadership and see how you can create a shared vision and exemplify that kind of leadership.
  • Lately I’ve read several interesting articles on hiring on the “Great Resignation” and how to adapt:
    • Fortune: The Great Resignation Rages on as a Record 4.5 million Americans Quit
    • NYT: More Quit Jobs than Ever, but Most Turnover is in Low-Wage Work
    • Korn Ferry: A Must-Do Reset List for 2022
    • McKinsey & Company: “Great Attrition” or “Great Attraction?” The Choice is Yours
    • Emsi: The Demographic Drought
    • DCI Talent Wars 2021: How COVID-19 Reshaped the Battle for Workers
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  • Minnesota Vikings announce recipients of social-justice grants totaling $1M. Follow the link to read about Turnsignl, Allsquare, and 11 other well-deserved awardees.
  • Redistricting: On January 4th, 2022, history was made once again as the Minnesota Special Redistricting Court Panel  heard oral arguments in support of a community developed and BIPOC centered map. Actually, the judges heard arguments for and against four separate proposals. The court is expected to release new maps on February 15th, 2022.
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  • Major projects completed in 2021.
  • Citing rent control, Luther Seminary freezes plans to sell lower campus for housing – Twin Cities
  • St. Paul rail agreement supports second train to Chicago: A proposed $31 billion acquisition involving two freight rail giants won’t imperil plans to add a second daily passenger train trip between St. Paul and Chicago — and it could mean service will begin sooner than expected.
  • Homebuilding in the Twin Cities reached a 16-year high in 2021. Rental apartments accounted for more than half of all housing construction in 2021.
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Public Safety is Job 1

1/3/2022

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First of all, happy new year. I was so glad of the break, though I am still recovering from too much food and too few wins at cards with the family.
 
While I was gone, of course I kept up on the news – as I’m sure you all did. Public safety is really heavy on my heart today – and still.  Like most of you, I’m sure, I’ve been stewing on the latest crimes in St. Paul – a brazen mugging of an elderly woman followed by a carjacking of a young mother and her child – both by 1 adult and 2 teenagers with criminal histories. At least two of these young men highlight an additional challenge – they should have been detained as a result of previous serious convictions. 
 
So many of these crimes are being committed by known offenders, as in the two incidents above. Which takes me to another article from Dec 22, about long time Ramsey County and Washington County prosecutors who walked away from their jobs last year, one “citing his frustration with policies he says are designed to keep offenders out of jail.”
 
We need a victim-centered approach to our public safety, one that includes the police making the arrests and the judicial system actually holding the offenders responsible – and detaining them. 
 
Separate and yet related is the upcoming federal civil rights trial of the 3 ex-Minneapolis police officers to be held in St. Paul starting this month (jury selection begins Jan 20). Why is it being held in St. Paul, you ask? Very good question. Cases are assigned randomly to federal judges, and U.S. District Judge Paul Mangnuson's chambers are in downtown St. Paul. The city had asked for the trial to be moved to Minneapolis. The St. Paul Police Department continues with their planning phase in advance of the trial in order to achieve their goal of protecting the people, property, and free speech of all involved parties - and helping minimize disruptions to those of you who live and work in the downtown neighborhood. 
 
One of the first things you will notice changing around the courthouse is the fencing that will be erected. The fencing will encompass the block the courthouse sits on and will require one lane closure on each street (Jackson, Kellogg, Robert and Fourth) along the curb line. We can expect that the lane closures will expand as we get closer to the beginning of the trial. Follow this link to sign up for BUSINESS information meetings hosted by the St. Paul police department.
 
Public safety has to be Job 1, which requires that all partners from the police through to the judicial system are in alignment. Your Chamber is making public safety a top priority moving forward, to ensure your voice, your concerns, are communicated. We all have a role to play in keeping our community safe, because the assurance of public safety is essential. Your Chamber’s public affairs department is convening a subcommittee looking at the business role in public safety. For updates on that work through the year, subscribe to our advocacy newsletter.  
 
See you in the trenches.
B​
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  • Scientists say that Omicron may peak in the U.S. in mid-January. New estimates suggest that the country’s cases could peak by Jan. 9 at around 2.5 million cases per week, though that number may go as high as 5.4 million. Still, the enormous numbers of people getting infected could greatly strain hospitals, especially in places with lower vaccination rates.
  • The U.S. is averaging more than 386,000 cases a day, soaring to highest levels on record. Hospitalizations are growing at a much slower rate, and the death rate is falling.
  • In Minnesota, we have surpassed 10K deaths.
  • There was a bit of good news from the latest scientific reports:
    • People infected with Omicron were about half as likely to be hospitalized as those with the Delta variant, according to a report from British health officials, and they were only one-third as likely to need emergency care.
    • A laboratory study from South African scientists suggested that people who have recovered from an Omicron infection might be able to repel infections from the Delta variant.
    • Several studies have offered a possible explanation for Omicron’s milder effects: It often concentrates in the nose, throat and windpipe rather than damaging the lungs, as previous variants did.
  • More employers are delaying return-to-office plans as the Omicron variant continues to spread.​​
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  • U.S. jobless claims drop to 198K, more evidence that the job market remains strong in the aftermath of the coronavirus recession.
  • Here’s what real estate economists are predicting for the 2022 housing market. Included is the anticipation of a much less frenzied pace.  
  • Economists say 2022 is the Year of Inflation. Can the public and policymakers get on the same page?
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State:
  • Year in Review: the 6 biggest things that didn’t happen at the Minnesota Legislature in 2021.
  • Minnesota has a $7.7B surplus. Here are 9 ways lawmakers could spend it. Key is business relief.
 
Regional
  • St. Paul’s Mayor Melvin Carter was sworn in for a second term today.
 
Read more updates in our weekly Chamber Advocacy Update.
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  • Looking for an update on the economy? Inflation? Workforce? Join us on Jan 12 at the MN Humanities Center for our Lunch With Leaders, guest speaker: Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Mpls Fed.
  • St. Paul and Minneapolis have significant challenges ahead. Join us on January 27 at the University of St. Thomas to hear what our mayors have to say at our annual Breakfast With the Mayors.
  • Our biggest event of every year is our Annual Meeting. More crucial than ever today is cyber security, and we’ll be hearing about that this year from this country’s preeminent voice: Join us on February 17 at RiverCentre to hear from the Director of the NSA/Cyber Command, General Paul Nakasone.
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CEOs from some of public companies, private companies, professional services firms, health and insurance, hospitality and entertainment, media and communications, commercial real estate, construction, banking and finance all reflect on lessons learned in 2021.  From “permanent work from wherever, whenever” policies to digital transformation, to a greater appreciation for our resiliency, to the convergence of our personal and professional lives. Interesting read!
 
What work looks like in 2022: what do you think about a 4-day work-week? As we experience the Great Reshuffle, this and other issues contribute to employee retention– and preferences for the future of work.
 
The new CEO toolbox: Rethinking what it means to be a high-performing leader.​
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St. Paul looks to attract more diverse developers – particularly for housing development services.
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  • Two more apartment complexes draw high prices – and are sold to out of state investors.
  • JO Companies CEO, Johnny Opara, has closed on financing for an affordable housing project on the East Side, keeping a promise to his father.
  • $4.1M flows from the federal government to the Saint Paul Port Authority – Barge Terminal 2 dockwall rehabilitation.
  • Minnesota’s biggest VC deals of 2021 got fuel from coasts. We are seeing significantly more frequent and larger investments in Minnesota-based start-ups.
  • Minnesota’s industrial demand remains strong, continuing a trend from 2020.
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