Last week was our annual Breakfast With The Mayors. Our opportunity to engage with Mayor Carter and Mayor Frey. Now more than ever we need leadership from our elected leaders and a keen grasp of the value business brings to the economic success of our region.

The event was stronger than ever. And our new format, a conversation moderated by Roshini Rajkumar, is fun and dynamic. Some takeaways from our mayors that we absolutely agree with: “we ARE better when we work together.” They were asked about how their approach to working with their new city councils and I really appreciated the responses we got from both. Mayor Carter talked about the need “to get beyond managing the conflict, to harnessing the energy.” Mayor Frey confirmed this as well, sharing this idea that conflict should be expected if we are to be better tomorrow than we are today. The point? Conflict is healthy, honest, and even critical to growth moving forward. If I care about you, if I care about where we are going together, my obligation to our relationship is that I speak the truth. Which sometimes causes conflict. And which isn’t always easy or comfortable. The challenge, as we’ve discussed before, is that we always assume good intent. 

Both Mayors also talked about the importance of sharing good news. Mayor Carter uses a nice turn of phrase: “bad news travels, but good news needs to be carried.” I agree with that! The good news they wanted to convey is that crime is down (true). And as I mentioned in last week's blog, there is still more to do to support unsheltered residents and make environmental improvements to enhance the perception of safety.

Mayor Carter also was asked about plans for the new sales tax.The Chamber recently had a productive meeting with Public Works and Parks, where we mutually agreed transparency on sales tax expenditures is important. We offered the Chamber's assistance in conveying project information to our members and convening conversations between the City and the business community.

Overall, I felt good about how the event went, and attendees really value the opportunity to see these mayors more relaxed, more personal. I hope you’ll consider joining us next year!

See you in the trenches!

​B

I wanted to make sure you saw my opinion piece in the Pioneer Press this past weekend. Your Chamber conducts an annual survey of both employers and residents to track trends around perceptions of public safety. My hope is to convey this idea that we have an opportunity. We have the power to improve our experience of and confidence in the safety of St. Paul. We start by paying attention to this data about the impact our surroundings have on perception. We can’t accept circumstances or an environment that drive people away from using the skyways, frequenting St. Paul restaurants and shops, or working for St. Paul businesses.

As a reminder, the good news: we have seen a 35-percentage-point drop — from 65% in 2022 to 30% in 2023 — in the number of St. Paul residents who reported that they feel crime in St. Paul is an increasing problem. While only 7% said they felt crime was decreasing, most residents responding said they felt that crime has “stayed the same” in the city. Also, while crime was chosen as the “most important issue facing St. Paul” in 2022, in 2023 “maintenance of public infrastructure” rose to the top, with “protecting residents and visitors from crime” ranking third behind “managing the needs of the homeless.”

The challenge ahead for us to address together relates to the data that suggests many people have changed their behavior in response to their belief that elevated risk of crime is becoming normalized.

In my experience, St. Paul’s residents, employers and employees are caring and attentive. I also know that City leadership puts public safety as a top priority. We need our city’s environment to reflect that. We want the skyways, streetscapes, and neighborhoods to be clean, safe, and welcoming for everyone because they are an expression of the pride and love we feel for our city. We want to know that our unsheltered are being cared for. We want residents and visitors alike to feel confident that a vibrant future lies ahead for St. Paul.
Our survey results amplify the sense of urgency, particularly around three impactful key items (and the need for an even greater sense of urgency):

1. Safe, Clean Skyways
2. Assisting People in Crisis
3. Recruitment, Retention of Police Officers

We CAN organize around the good things we all want – to live and work in a beautiful capital city that also is the best place for opportunity. And that starts with a foundation of public safety.

Read more and dive into the survey methodology, data, and results HERE.
I initially commented on our public safety survey I my Nov 13 “It’s Our Business” blog.  

In advance of my thoughts for the week, two things. First: Monday was a day to join together to honor Dr. Martin Luther King Jr, whose legacy of hope continues. I am fueled especially by my favorite of his words of inspiration: “Faith is taking the first step even when you don’t see the whole staircase.”

Second: I’d like to highlight our Celebrate Business Success/Service Success awardees for this month’s Lunch With Leaders. Congratulations first to the Pioneer Press, for 175 years in business – before MN became a state! Check out and buy their book, Twin Cities Snapshots, History through the Lens of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.  I have it already and it is a beautiful tribute to our city’s history. Also, congratulations to Merrick Community Services, for their 116 years of service to Saint Paul. Merrick supports individuals and families to navigate life transitions, find health and stability, and promote independence. This includes food service, Meals on Wheels, and employment services.  Interested in supporting? Ahead are a food drive, March 1-30, and their Spring fundraiser, Uplift. 

Last week at our quarterly Lunch With Leaders, we heard from Ben Malin, VP of the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. The topic? One of my favorites: “Recent Economic Developments and Outlook.” Ben described 2023 as “The Return of Supply.”  It was a year of pleasant surprises in that inflation moderated, despite economic activity being more resilient than expected. Meanwhile, the labor market – thought still tight – has moved into better balance. 

If you remember, the Fed raised interest rates by more than 4% in 2022 and yet, in 2023, the economy modestly surpassed all expectations (measured by inflation levels, GDP growth, and unemployment). Inflation levels fell steadily from a high of 7% in 2022 to approximately 3% at end of 2023. There is anticipation for more price “deflation” into 2024, including both commodities and housing/rent prices. Still higher than pre-COVID but continuing to course correct. The big question: did we actually experience a recession in 2023? The answer is no.  Overall economic growth was just under 3%, against projections of about .5% growth. Current projections are that 2024 growth will be slower, more like .5 - 1% GDP growth, but still – again – not into recession territory. 

What “carried the day” in terms of GDP? Mostly consumer spending. Household spending has been more resilient than expected, and workforce productivity improved. And the tight labor market is slowly returning to balance. In early 2022, nationally we saw about a 6 million-person gap between job openings and size of labor force (both employed and looking). That gap closed through the end of 2023, with labor force participation rate increasing. By the end of 2023, that gap was closer to 3 million persons, which should lead to a moderation in further wage growth.

In terms of housing: in 2023, the components most contributing to inflation were Housing and Services (excluding energy) prices. Housing/rental prices look to have peaked in early 2023 and should fall further. To get inflation down to the goal of 2%, we will need to see both Housing and Services prices continue to course correct in 2024. Of note: the largest component of Services inflation has been wage increases. 

The Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) remains committed to bringing inflation back to target level of 2% (currently at approximately 3%). At their December meeting, no change was made to interest rates. Most news out of that meeting were results of economic projections we’ve discussed above. We may be near the peak of the policy rate hiking cycle, and the FOMC now is at the point of the monetary policy “tightening cycle” that requires even more care. Chair Powell’s post-meeting remarks reflected that: “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data…”  So we’ll see. If you’d like to see the FOMC’s projections for 2024, you can read these notes and summary of economic projections from the December meeting. 

See you in the trenches,

​B

Aaaand…. we’re off! Before I get to my thoughts for this week, I want to flag some exciting events ahead this month, wanting to make sure they are on your radar. Wednesday’s Lunch With Leaders is our Economic Outlook with the Federal Reserve. This one is virtual (yay!). On January 23 is our annual Breakfast With The Mayors. Be sure to join us! And, finally, if you’re hiring, join us on January 24 for Ramsey County’s Inclusive Hiring Connections Summit. All upcoming events can be found on our Calendar.

I’m thinking of tomorrow’s Saint Paul City Council Inaugural Ceremony at the Ordway. Much has been said about the historic nature of the all-female Council, the first time in the city’s 170-year history. I look forward to being there, to congratulate and celebrate. The Star Tribune had a great article this weekend, about the history of women in Saint Paul politics. As a former female officer in the U.S. Army, I am deeply appreciative of women who choose to compete. To lead. And, as a Boomer/Gen Xer, I also feel it’s important to usher in the next generation of leaders. These women are smart…. talented… determined. My next question, then: what are they going to do? I can tell you what we’re going to do. We’re going to spend time with them, understand their priorities, share ours, and start working together. Tomorrow is upon us. And we’ve got a lot of work to do.

See you in the trenches!

​B

Welcome back! I hope you had time to recharge over the holiday week. We sure did! Because I got sick, I spent a lot of time lying on the couch watching movies. My favorite kind of movie is one with a redemptive message. Somewhere along the line, the hero/heroine grows. For example, Ironman is my guy because I enjoy the redemptive story line… and then, of course, he ultimately saves the world. No matter the story, the thread of redemption appeals to me because such a journey requires that we check that our actions are aligned with our thoughts/values.

I had a “man in the mirror” moment after a particularly good episode of Suits. I was reacting to Harvey’s opponent, and judging. Hard. I wound up chuckling at myself over my reaction, but I later reflected on two things:

1. How important it is to “respond” rather than “react.”
2. How we need to assume good intent.
 
And that certainly applies to us as we look toward our work ahead this year, building bridges to advance regional priorities. Our job at the Chamber is defined by service. And our specific lane is in the advocacy, promotion, and advancement of an inclusive economic advancement. The guidance above helps me get my own attitude straight when the work requires that we “wrestle.” Here's to a year of responding thoughtfully in the face of challenge and assuming good intent!

See you in the trenches,

​B