No Future Is Inevitable

What exactly is “an inflection point”? It’s a phrase I’ve heard used recently, particularly as we’re facing issues that can transform us, such as racial reckoning, COVID-19 and, most recently, the Derek Chauvin trial. Greg Satell, in his article How Inflection Points Define the Future,  “Throughout history, inflection points have defined the future…. Today, we are in the midst of a series of inflection points in what already was a time of enormous flux. We can’t predict the future but we can prepare for it.”
 
I tend to be a linear thinker: if something is growing, I expect it to grow. If something is declining I expect that to continue as well. By its very nature, an infection point interrupts that. Is a disruption of a pattern. Though we tend to look for patterns to understand the world around us, it is the disruption – rather than the continuity – that often has the biggest impact.  
 
Simply put, inflection points represent a change in trajectory.

1. Things are going to change, get ready. Read: “what to hold and what to fold?”
2. Things have changed; get used to it.
3. We’re entering new territory. Not sure what that means yet.

 
From your perspective, what does that mean to you?
 
Though Satell’s article is largely focused on technology, I find his logic applies more broadly. SO MUCH is changing right now, and the most important inflection points are often the ones we make ourselves through the choices we make. No future is inevitable.
 
See you in the trenches.
 
B
 
 
1. COVID-19
Minnesota’s 7-day positivity rate has gone from 6.2 to 5.3% this past week and 31% of the state is now fully vaccinated. The age group with the most infections is 20-29 year-olds and the age group with the most deaths remains people 80+ years old. Read more.
 
2. Advocacy
In a maneuver not unexpected, the House on Thursday passed an omnibus tax bill that packaged strongly supported tax conformity legislation with strongly debated tax increases – holding needed PPP forgiveness and tax conformity hostage to a proposed 5th tax tier.
 
Higher income tax rates for higher earners, recovering corporate profits from foreign tax shelters and providing tax exemptions for businesses and individuals who received federal aid during the pandemic: These are key elements of the omnibus tax bill narrowly passed by the House Thursday. The vote was 68-66 for HF991, sponsored by Rep. Paul Marquart (DFL-Dilworth). It now goes to the Senate, where Sen. Carla Nelson (R-Rochester) is the sponsor.
 
The bill would create a new fifth-tier income tax rate of 11.15% on income above $1 million, or $500,000 for single filers. It’s estimated the change would bring in $303.6 million in fiscal year 2022, $564 million in the 2022-23 biennium.
 
Among the refunds, aids and credits, the biggest difference maker on the budgetary bottom line would be creating a tax subtraction for unemployment benefits up to $10,200 for those with gross incomes under $150,000. It would apply only to tax year 2020, but would reduce state revenues by $259.7 million for the next biennium.

The bill would conform to the tax provisions in five federal acts that have become law since December 2019, resulting in a loss to the state’s General Fund of $341.4 million in fiscal year 2022. Read more.
 
Read more updates in our weekly Chamber Advocacy Update.
 
3. Economics
Restaurant Revitalization Fund Training
The SBA’s Minnesota District Office will be holding multiple webinars to help eligible restaurants, bars, and other qualifying businesses impacted by COVID-19 better understand the Restaurant Revitalization Fund.
 
This program will provide eligible entities with funding equal to their pandemic-related revenue loss up to $10 million per business and no more than $5 million per physical location. Recipients are not required to repay the funding as long as funds are used for eligible uses no later than March 11, 2023.
 
Some training is general, other is specialized for women-owned, small disadvantaged, veteran, Hmong, multi-lingual. Check here for more information and training dates. Some sessions start this week yet: Restaurant Revitalization Fund Training.
 
The Minneapolis Fed’s latest survey results: On Friday, April 30, 9:00 to 9:30am, Ron Wirtz will host a 30-minute webinar to discuss broad survey findings. To register for FREE webinar: Minneapolis Fed survey results: Current business conditions webinar.
 
4. Cultivating Relationships
Remembering a public servant for the ages
Last week we read the many thoughtful acknowledgements of the loss of Walter Mondale. In Matt Kramer’s most recent e-newsletter, the UoM continues “to mourn the loss of Walter Mondale, U of M alumnus (’56), former vice president of the United States, and 1984 Democratic nominee for president. Mondale was a dedicated public servant and lifelong friend of the University of Minnesota, and our Law School building bears his name. Throughout his storied career, Mondale was an unpretentious yet forceful advocate. Read more about his life in stories from the Law School and the Humphrey School.”
 
5. Driving Progress
The City of Saint Paul has launched a new website that's a one-stop shop for all of the public projects taking place in downtown – be sure to check it out.
 
6. Growing Leaders
Simon Sinek posted this short video about building trusting teams while working remotely. It’s a good reminder that we need to stay connected and support one another: 
 
 7. Building Capacity
Ramsey County’s top priority for its expected $108M in ARP funds is affordable housing. The first half of the county’s direct allocation will be available for use on May 10. The second half comes in 2022.