A Series of Black Swan Events

Like many of you, I’ve been out and about more regularly. The Chamber office is officially “open,” as are most of yours. And I’ve been talking with you. I’m hearing from a lot of people that you’re really feeling overwhelmed. A few of you are out on R&R these last couple of weeks, because you really needed the break. I’m saying this out loud in case others are feeling this as well, without the reassuring knowledge that yours is a common experience right now.
 
This past week one of our members shared the perfect phrase to describe what we’re experiencing: “it’s been a series of ‘black swan events,’ and we’re all tired.”  That phrase was new to me.  So I had to look it up: Investopedia tells me that “A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that has potentially severe consequences.  Such events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence – in hindsight - that they were obvious.”  
 
Think about it…. The pandemic, George Floyd murdered, civil unrest, attack on our nation’s capital, oh-yes-the-pandemic-round-2, crime, rent control, inflation, and now war in Ukraine. We keep going to survival mode. If you remember, last year I talked about the “surge capacity, and why we feel awful.” It bears repeating. At some point we run out of that surge capacity, and I’m sensing that here. Among all of us, myself included.  When we reach the limits of our surge capacity, when it’s depleted, it has to be renewed. Especially hard because the significant string of black swan events, one after the other, has changed our “emergency” phase to “chronic.”
 
And that’s when I heard encouragement from this member, because he reminded me about the value of chambers: we bring people together for nurturing togetherness. We actually do “create connections that count.” These moments together can help us renew, recharge, refresh.  So if you, too, have run out of gas, so to speak, come see us. Come see one another. We’ve missed you, and need you too.
 
See you in the trenches.
B

• Omicron BA.2 variant drives uptick in Minnesota cases. But the state’s outbreak remains at low levels not seen since last summer.
• Minnesota got $73B in pandemic aid. Where did it go? It’s easily the largest influx of federal cash in state history, and translates to roughly $12.8K for each of the state’s more than 5.7M residents. More than 71% of the funds were used for economic aid.

• It's earnings season again for big banks. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is first on the docket, with it set to report first-quarter earnings before the market opens Wednesday. On Thursday, it's Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley and U.S. Bancorp's turn. We'll be watching to see whether Refinitiv analysts' estimates of a disappointing first quarter come to fruition.
• Headwinds are mounting for the U.S. economy: inflation and interest rates are on the rise. Link to Morning Consult’s Monthly U.S. Economic Outlook for April. Interesting potential shift here as a result…. In March, consumer sentiment was down, and worker retention was up.  That retention level just may continue to increase as the economic environment becomes a little more uncertain.

​Federal:

• Congress left town for two weeks without passing a $10 billion emergency supplemental spending bill to fund the Biden administration's COVID-19 response, punting that legislation and a $55 billion measure to help restaurants and other businesses still struggling with the pandemic until it returns later this month. 
• Senate confirms Kentanji Brown Jackson to Supreme Court.

 
State:

• Minnesota Senate passes tax cut bill.  This bill would cut income taxes by $3B this year, and at least $2.5B each year after. Passage in the House as a standalone measure is unlikely. 
• House DFL, Senate GOP offer differing plans to fight crime.

 
Regional

• As the May 1 deadline for the enactment date of St. Paul's referendum-led rent control policy looms, we're watching a lot of the unintended consequences play out.  During the campaign, many experts -- developers, property owners, economists, etc. -- were accused of "fear mongering" when voicing the consequences of passage, but experts are experts for a reason. We're already seeing new housing projects being cancelled or postponed, a drop in home sale prices, and confusion around the scope and transparency of a stakeholder group convened by the Mayor's office.

 
Read more updates in our weekly Chamber Advocacy Update.

• This month the Saint Paul Hotel celebrates 112 years of excellence and elegance!  Look for an informal Anniversary Celebration on Monday, April 18, at 3pm!
• We are hosting a retirement party for Chief Todd Axtell on April 20, 4-6pm, at John’s Bar – back of Herbie’s on the Park.  All are welcome; please join us!
• Ramsey County Tech Future, virtual exploration of the careers and pathways.  Fri, Apr 22, 8-10am.  Please join us!
• Events ahead for the St. Paul Area Chamber: Join Us!
  • 2022 Equity Leadership Series, Session 2, April 20.
  • Next Regional Young Professionals Event: Behind the scenes at the Minnesota Vikings Museum. Please join us!

• I especially appreciated this article: 5 tips to stay focused as a new CEO. How to ensure you don’t get stuck in the weeds… “attention is the new path to productivity.”

• The City of St. Paul: has created the 30% AMI Deeply Affordable Housing Fund with its ARPA allocation to expand housing supply for extremely low-income residents.  The City is soliciting applications to fund eligible developments located within the boundaries of Saint Paul.  Applications due April 21. 
• Washington County: The Board of Commissioners has allocated $2 million for investments in broadband within Washington County. The Broadband Grant Program will provide 1:1 matching grant funding to cities, townships, and broadband providers for the expansion of high-speed broadband.  
• Ramsey County: Three development projects in Maplewood were submitted to Ramsey County's Inclusive Housing Development Solicitation process for housing development projects that build or preserve inclusive affordable housing. The funding awarded by Ramsey County for the projects will come from a variety of federal and local sources – with a majority available through American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) and Ramsey County’s Housing and Redevelopment Authority levy. 
• UnitedHealth Group announces additional $100M for affordable housing.  This translates to over 1,000 homes for people struggling with housing instability.

• Andersen Corp pays $2.9M for Cottage Grove site. Apparently the plan is to build a 330K SF warehouse, the latest expansion of the company’s campus in the area.
• Xcel Energy natural gas project: replacing a natural gas line in downtown St Paul: along Wabasha St, between 4th and Exchange streets, and along 4th St W, between St. Peter and Cedar. Work will continue into June. This work is required to take place before the City of Saint Paul’s Wabasha Street Reconstruction Project which is set to start this summer. See the City’s website for more information. ​