 You know me, I continue to pay close attention to interest rates and the economy overall. I went down a serious rabbit hole this weekend reading all about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which is causing serious ripples. More on that later. First I want to talk about economic indicators for what’s ahead. People are still spending, companies are still hiring. Many analysts still expect a mild recession in the middle of the year, but with the continued strength of consumer spending and business optimism/continued hiring, projections are becoming more optimistic. This despite inflation that continues, albeit at a slower pace.
Some highlights on the economy:
Together, these indicators of are strong signals that we are not through with inflation yet. So what’s happening with interest rates? The Fed raised its key interest rate again last month, the 8th time it has done so in the last year. Anticipate a few more small hikes ahead, as inflation is still so high and unemployment so low. All indications are that, at the FOMC meeting this week, the Fed will raise rates again, perhaps 0.25 – 0.5%. And so, we’re back to the banks: Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank both were seized by regulators earlier this month. Each collapsed for markedly different reasons than those that slammed Lehman Brothers in 2008, but they exposed the banks’ vulnerabilities both to increased interest rates and their own unbalanced investment portfolios. And just this past week 11 of the country’s largest banks together have injected over $30B in another vulnerable Bay Area Bank, First Republic Bank, in part to stabilize that institution and also to shore up confidence in the banking industry more broadly. I bring up the banks because, with the problems in the banking sector this month, there have been calls for the Fed to stop raising interest rates. But the strong February jobs report and this most recent inflation reading are sure indications – and I’m not alone in my thinking here – that the Fed will keep raising rates to tame ongoing inflation. Stay tuned for more. See you in the trenches, B
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 At our Annual Meeting I talked about this idea that today’s leaders are burdened with the responsibility of ushering in Tomorrow. I wanted to expand on that thinking a bit today. Because we can’t take that burden lightly. It is an honor and a responsibility, that requires us to stay engaged and exercise our power on others’ behalf – within our unique spheres of influence. I’ve been thinking a lot about power this past week. Its shapes and forms, how people use it, the responsibility of those who have it… I had coffee with a coworker on Friday, we talked about this very thing, and I was reminded of advice I got years ago: be careful about wanting power/leadership. Of course, he had been referring to the burden of leadership.
Which took me down another rabbit hole, that of one of my favorite speeches by then President-elect John F. Kennedy, from 1961: “History will not judge our endeavors – and a government cannot be selected – merely on the basis of color or creed or even party affiliation. Neither will competence and loyalty and stature, while essential to the utmost, suffice in times such as these. For of those to whom much is given, much is required. And when at some future date the high court of history sits in judgment on each one of us--recording whether in our brief span of service we fulfilled our responsibilities to the state--our success or failure, in whatever office we may hold, will be measured by the answers to four questions:
So if you feel like you’re Yesterday, or even Today, acknowledge your power. With that power comes continued responsibility to share it, to use it in service to others, to develop others on their own leadership journey. Your Chamber strives to provide opportunities to do just that, so please join us! Our Young Professionals, our Ambassadors, our Chamber Connect opportunities and others are intended to bring us together! See you in the trenches, B I hope you were able to join us for last week’s Annual Meeting. I’m not exaggerating when I tell you it was our best yet. Really powerful, great energy in the room, strong speakers. Our theme was, “Investing in Tomorrow.” Our speakers addressed this theme through the lenses of people, culture, and technology. You can’t help but feel optimistic about Tomorrow when you listened to them: Jeff Aguy, our fabulous host (2043); Colette Campbell (Bremer); Dario Otero (Youth Lens); and Srini Somayajula (Ecolab). The room was filled with long time investors/partners, businesses large and small, young people, and so very many friends I don’t know yet. I loved seeing the new faces!
Every year my comments center on the themes I saw heard from you over the previous year. What I I saw last year was that people showed up differently. AND different people showed up. What I heard was uncertainty. And what I realized was that I, myself, am Yesterday. I don’t quite know when it happened, I didn’t believe it first, but – yes – I am Yesterday. The shift is underway towards Tomorrow and we, together, are burdened with the responsibility of ushering it in. I also talked about this idea that change, the looming of Tomorrow, heightens our feelings of uncertainty. When we feel uncertain about something ahead of us, we instinctively slow down and get more cautious, to prepare for the potential “bad” that may be around the corner. The challenge, of course, is to embrace uncertainty. Lean in to surprise. After all, when in history has anything been “certain”? Simon Sinek recently spoke of this in the context of COVID and he said, “what happened over these last 3 years was a shocking period that REMINDED us that things are uncertain.” We conflate normalcy with certainty. And that, of course, is the illusion. As leaders we all can harness the approach entrepreneurs and small business owners understand viscerally: “how do we work in this environment and try something new?” We all have much to offer one another. We all need an eyes-forward approach, one that empowers an innovative spirit and forward thinking without losing what we know. We can double down on our inclusive approach to people and ideas. Tomorrow IS coming. The question is, what price will we pay tomorrow if we don’t adapt today? Humble gratitude to the Chamber team, our member-owners (you!), and our amazing guests. Was a celebration of this community that made me very proud! See you in the trenches, B We’re preparing for our Annual Meeting, coming up this Thursday. This year promises to be our biggest yet, and I look forward to seeing you. What got me thinking this past week is our Chamber team, and all the work they are doing in preparation. This is such a great group of people. I hope you are getting the opportunity to know them.
We all know what it feels like to be on a trusting team. You can raise your hand and say, “I made a mistake.” Or, “I need help.” Colleagues will rush in to support us with no fear of retribution. The opposite is that we can’t admit mistakes or ask for help, for fear of humiliation or lack of promotion. Organizations that can talk about the truth will thrive over time. That’s a good team. The responsibility of a good leader is to build an environment in which trusting teams can develop. Which takes me back to my military days. I went through my Officer Basic Training in Fort Lewis, WA. Part of our training included being put through different pressure tests, to develop our leadership skills. One was a problem-solving course, in which we took turns leading a squad of our peers to get them all through a physical obstacle course. And each round was timed. Here’s what we found: the men charged right in too quickly because they wanted to win. And they often failed because they didn’t spend enough time sharing ideas and planning. The women leaders tended to be slower, they spent more time planning, and they often came up with the right plan. But they’d fail because they ran out of time. The best successes were with blended teams. And isn’t that true about anything? The more alternative styles/perspectives we have on a team, the more creativity we bring to a problem. Each of us covers another’s blind spots. Today’s encouragement is to embrace the new, the different, and sometimes the opposing. They add color to the team, broaden our thinking, and make us more honest. See you in the trenches, B So I had breakfast with a girlfriend this past weekend, and we were talking about the power of connections. On its face, a modest notion. And yet each of us can think of a moment when we really connected with someone in a way that changed our lives. A mentor, a teacher, a boss, a friend, maybe even a child. And as we continue to explore the hybrid/virtual world of work, connections can be harder to achieve. Enter kintsugi, the Japanese art of repairing broken pottery by mending the areas of breakage with gold. Hah. Cracked pots connected in such a way that the newly created thing is art. Poetic, don’t you think?
I submit that, beyond anything else we do, making a connection with another person is the most powerful thing we can experience. It’s “gold.” Human connection is what makes us feel heard, understood, seen. And it gives us a sense of belonging. Lest you think I’m getting too touchy-feely here: when it comes to business, long term partners and clients bring us sustainability and growth. Simply put, those long term relationships are built on connections. We do business with those we know and we like. We listen to people we trust. And we are encouraged by people we value. I find that, as I make ever-stronger connections with you, I’m expanding: my thinking, my perspectives, my understanding. And I’m learning that proximity is key to developing empathy. The better I connect to you, the better I can appreciate you. Even when we disagree. We can transform differences into possibilities; we can experience the “one plus one equals three” phenomenon, where together we do something new and amazing. All through connections. This is immediately relevant because our Annual Meeting is fast approaching on March 2. Our speaker panel this year, along with our fabulous emcee, come from our region. Are leaders among us. And I already have grown through our conversations, our laughter, their amazing and creative ideas. I look forward to introducing you to them as well! I encourage you to commit to connecting with someone, in person. No matter how small such a moment may seem, it’s worth your effort. Chambers exist to create such opportunities, and I look forward to knowing you as well! See you in the trenches, B |
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