The Economy - and Operation Metro Surge - By the Numbers

First off, last call for our Annual Meeting on Thursday, February 26! Register by Feb. 18 to ensure you have a spot!
 
Reviewing 2025’s performance and early indicators for 2026 reveal a mixed but meaningful set of signals—some concerning, some encouraging, all important for Minnesota’s business community to track.
 
First, the big headline: Canadian tariffs are hitting Minnesota hard. Congressional support for them is waning.

• Minnesota counts Canada as the state’s largest trading partner. In 2024, Minnesota exported $7.5 billion to Canada and imported about $14.7 billion. DEED data from January shows that in the third quarter Minnesota’s exports for farm, mining and manufactured goods were down nearly $1 billion, or 14%, compared with the same time frame in 2024.

• As of Feb 12: exports to Canada from MN continue to fall, now by double digits. And the U.S. House (as of Feb 12) voted to end the tariffs (though not clear if this will make a difference).
• Research from the nonpartisan Tax Foundation released this month showed the effects of the tariffs on the average U.S. household was $1,000 last year.

 
At the same time, the Minneapolis Fed 2025 Economic Conference pointed to mixed growth.

• Modest GDP growth continued while labor market cooled.
• Manufacturing, as measured by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), is currently at 52.6%, marking the first expansion in 12 months. This increase reflects a significant rebound in economic activity, up from 47.95% in December.
• Manufacturing, mining, and professional services drove growth. Agriculture continues to face real challenges, compounding the export slowdown noted above.

 
What did Operation Metro Surge ”accomplish”?
By the numbers:

• Over 4,000 people were arrested during the surge.
• Minneapolis estimates businesses lost $203 million through the end of January, and one in five residents need food assistance.
• A survey of 90 Latino-owned businesses estimates a third have shut down.
• Home sales in the Twin Cities dropped nearly 20% last month.
• 14 federal prosecutors resigned from the US Attorney’s office
• 2 journalists were arrested.
• Worst of all, 2 people — Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti — were killed by ICE agents.

 
Business Support

• www.WeLoveTC.com
• Salt Cure Fund (national day of support – February 18)
• Minneapolis Foundation fund
• Saint Paul & Minnesota Foundation fund
• MN launched  $10M loan program

​We are hopeful that recent announcements of Operation Metro Surge drawing down will come to fruition quickly. We all have a role to play in helping to build back the strength of our local economy, specifically for small businesses that will need to catch up from their losses to remain strong. Thank you to all of you who are examining your own spheres of influence and how you can offer support.
 
See you in the trenches,
B

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