Before we dig into the economy, I want to celebrate the beautiful weather together in downtown Saint Paul this upcoming weekend, with the Ordway’s annual Flint Hills Family Festival weekend, which begins Friday, May 30 and Grand Old Day, coordinated by our partners at the Grand Avenue Business Association, on Sunday, June 1.  I hope to see you there!
 
Today’s title comes from a recent article by the Minneapolis Fed. At a “Fed Listens” event in Detroit Lakes, Chair Neel Kashkari heard directly from business owners and community leaders. The message? The economy remains resilient, but uncertainty is creeping in As Kashkari put it, there’s a “nervousness around the edges”.
 
That same theme emerged during our May Lunch with Leaders, presented by Wells Fargo, where I spoke with Ryan Nunn, research economist at the Minneapolis Fed. He offered an insightful distinction between “hard data” (backward-looking, quantitative) and “soft data” (forward-looking, qualitative). The hard data says we’re strong. The soft data? Less certain.  
 
Key data points – Strengths and Strains

• Unemployment remains low: 4.2% nationally, 3.2% in Minnesota – both below the natural rate, adding inflationary pressure.
• Labor force participation is recovering: 62.6% nationally, 67.7% in Minnesota – approaching pre-COVID levels.
• Housing costs remain high: the average rate on a 30-year mortgage in the U.S. increased again last week to 6.86%, with surging costs of homeowners insurance compounding the pressure. Homebuying remains sluggish, with the slowest April pace since 2009.  
• Construction slowdown is notable: Despite strong rental demand, pre-construction activity in the Twin Cities signals a looming downturn -  more so than in Greater Minnesota or neighboring states.
• Federal policy uncertainty: is creating unpredictability in economic forecasting and markets alike.  

 
The Upside: Business Momentum

• Minnesota saw billions of dollars of expansion projects in 2024.  Here is a detailed list of Business Expansions in Minnesota, including 3 specifically in Saint Paul.
• Ecolab proposes an expansion of its Eagan R&D campus, which represents 1,000 jobs.
• In Saint Paul, Dark Horse Bar & Eatery is coming back under new leadership from the Eclective Creative Collective (owners of Can Can Wonderland and Saint Paul Brewing).
• Also in Saint Paul, much work is underway around redevelopment opportunities. The Port Authority, City/Saint Paul Downtown Alliance/Downtown Development Corporation, as well as strongly capable private developers are working on some exciting projects that lay a foundation for a stronger downtown core.

 
My Take
The U.S. economy was impressively robust in 2024, and consumer confidence was strong. Inflation has dropped to 2.3% as of April 2025. But uncertainty, the “nervousness around the edges” – fueled by trade policy, monetary shifts, and softening consumer sentiment – is rising. In these moments, we must return to the basics: revenue diversification, reducing debt exposure, building cash reserves, and taking care of our people (both employees and clients).
 
We are standing at the intersection of economic potential and risk. Now is the time for clarity, discipline, and optimism grounded in action.

See you in the trenches,
B

It’s still Small Business Month—and the challenge continues! Pledge to spend $50 at a small business in your community this month. It’s a simple act that can make a real difference.
 
Last week we also celebrated some wins: we joined Sherman Associates at the grand opening of their new Landmark Tower apartments, and we were thrilled to mark the expansion of chef Terry John Zila’s Gallery Event Space and Hepcat in the Osborn 370 building. Saint Paul is alive with momentum—and small businesses are leading the way.
 
You may have seen the weekend article in the Pioneer Press: St. Paul, Minneapolis chambers of commerce probe potential merger. The most important point remains unchanged—we are engaged in a thoughtful, intentional process aimed at increasing our impact on behalf of the region’s business community. And we are deeply committed to listening—to each other, and to you.
 
That brings me to a mindset I’ve been reflecting on. Earlier this spring, I read Never Split the Difference by Chris Voss, and I’ve been following his work on negotiation ever since. One theme that stands out is the power of listening. In his words:

• “You can’t build trust if you’re not listening.”
• “Slow it down—breathe.”
• “Trade your need to be right for the need to understand.”

 
That’s exactly what we’re doing now: asking important questions, listening well, and remaining genuinely curious. That’s how we’ll reach the best outcomes—together.
 
See you in the trenches,
B

It’s Small Business Month! First off, a challenge: pledge to spend $50 with a small business in your community this month. You’ll be making a real difference!
 
Last Friday, May 9, during National Small Business Week, together with our chamber partners we hosted our 2nd Annual Small Business Summit and Expo, presented by Wells Fargo – and it was a huge success! Over 65 vendors and 300 participants joined us for a day of learning, networking, and celebrating small business success.
 
Congratulations to the 2025 Minnesota SBA Award Winners:

1. Veteran’s Small Business Champion: John B Yang, Digital Synergy
2. Veteran Owned Small Business of the Year: Jeff Anderson, ATEK Distribution
3. Women in Business Champion: Carol Anderson, Morrison County Community Development
4. Women Owned Small Business of the Year: Donnella Westphal, Jule’s Bistro
5. Young Entrepreneur of the Year: Brittany Howard, Victory Business Solutions
6. Encore Entrepreneur of the Year: Paul Kirkman, Victual
7. SBDC Excellence & Innovation Center Award - West Central Region Minnesota Small Business Development Center located at the Minnesota State Moorhead
8. Small Business Person of the Year: Beth Benike, Busy Baby, LLC
9. Family-Owned Small Business of the Year: Curtis, Anthony, Dean, & Sharon Reichmann, Reichmann Cattle Company, LLC 

 
Small Business Resources You Should Know About:
🔹 MN PROMISE Act – Round 2 grants/loans launching soon. Sign up for updates.
🔹 Plan It! Fall Cohort – NDC’s business training program. Apply by June 27.
🔹 Credit UP! Workshops – May 13 & 20, 5:30–7 p.m., NDC (625 University Ave).
🔹 QuickBooks Online Training – Free, virtual with WomenVenture. June 4, 11 & 18.
🔹 Metro State University’s Cyber Clinic – Free cybersecurity consulting for small businesses.
🔹 City of Saint Paul Business Support – Submit an intake form to get connected with the City and/or its various partners.
🔹 Startup Toolkit – May 13, 9–11 a.m., WomenVenture ($50). Covers business setup & banking.
🔹 MN DEED Monthly Small Business Call – May 13, 2–3 p.m. Topic: Using AI to simplify your business.
 
And finally, a nod to our makers:
The Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal just announced the 2025 Minnesota Manufacturing award winners.
 
Congratulations to the innovators driving our economy forward! Let’s keep the momentum going. Small business is big in Minnesota!
 
See you in the trenches,
B

Greetings! This week I’m highlighting two major upcoming events, focused on the economy – and one important legislative call to action.

First, mark your calendars! ​

On Friday, May 9, National Small Business Day, we are hosting our second annual Small Business Summit and Expo, presented by Wells Fargo. With over 60 vendors and 250 attendees already registered, this event brings together members from Grand Avenue Business Association, Oakdale Area Chamber of Commerce, the MN Black Chamber of Commerce and your very own St. Paul Area Chamber. Over lunch, the Small Business Administration will announce award winners, and we’ll hear inspiring stories from featured small business owners. Don’t miss this chance to learn, connect, and grow your network!  ​

Then on May 14, join us for Lunch with Leaders: The State of the Economy, also presented by Wells Fargo. Ryan Nunn of the Federal Reserve will help us unpack the economic uncertainty of the moment – and its effect on jobs, prices, and inflation.
 

Finally, a call to action:
A tax proposal from the Governor’s office and Department of Commerce will mean higher costs for the safety-net insurance products Minnesotans count on—like dental, vision, short- and long-term disability, and private paid family leave coverage.
 
This tax will more than double the tax rate on these products, raising premiums and making it more costly for employers to offer competitive benefits. It’s not just bad for working Minnesotans—it also threatens businesses’ ability to recruit and retain top-tier talent in an increasingly competitive job market.
 
WHAT YOU CAN DO: Act now to protect access to these benefits. Use ProtectOurCoverage.com to tell your legislators to vote NO on the Minnesota Insurance Coverage Tax.

See you in the trenches,
B